News · Data & AI Infrastructure
ASML Raises 2026 Outlook as AI Demand Drives Memory and Logic Orders
ASML raised its full-year sales outlook to €43 billion to €45 billion after a €9.3 billion second quarter, citing AI investment. Memory makers are expanding fastest, a sign that DRAM and HBM shortages will shape AI hardware costs.
By The AI Enterprise Magazine Team4 min readNews · Weekly briefing
Key takeaways
- Outlook raised. ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion after Q2 sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion.
- Memory leads growth. Memory-related system sales are expected to grow more than 75% in 2026 as DDR and HBM shortages lift prices.
- Capacity is booked ahead. 2027 low-NA EUV output is close to fully covered by orders, and ASML plans about 30% more capacity.
- Enterprises should plan for tight supply. Memory costs, long-term contracts and compute efficiency will shape AI budgets.
Week of July 13, 2026
ASML Expects AI-Driven Memory Sales to Grow More Than 75% in 2026
Chipmakers racing to add AI capacity are lifting ASML's 2026 outlook, with memory makers expanding fastest as DRAM and HBM shortages push prices higher.
View the data
| Expected 2026 growth (at least) | |
|---|---|
| Memory-related system sales | >75% |
| EUV system sales | >45% |
| Advanced logic foundry system sales | >25% |
ASML raised its full-year 2026 outlook on July 15 after reporting €9.3 billion in second-quarter sales, saying AI investment is pushing chipmakers to add capacity faster than planned. The Dutch company builds the lithography machines every leading-edge chip factory depends on, so its order book is one of the earliest signals of how much AI computing capacity will exist in two to three years. For enterprise technology leaders, the most telling detail was memory: ASML expects its memory-related system sales to grow more than 75% this year, as shortages lift prices for the DRAM and high-bandwidth memory inside AI servers.
What did ASML report for the second quarter of 2026?
According to ASML's second-quarter results release, total net sales were €9.3 billion, up from about €8.8 billion in the first quarter, and net income was €2.9 billion. Gross margin rose to 54.0% from 53.0% in the prior quarter. The company sold 86 new lithography systems in the quarter.
It guided third-quarter sales of €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion, with gross margin of 55% to 57%. For the full year, it now expects net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion and gross margin of 54% to 56%.
CEO Christophe Fouquet tied the improvement directly to AI. "Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand," he said in the release, adding that customers are speeding up their capacity expansion plans and that order intake stayed very strong in the first half.
Which parts of the chip market are growing fastest?
On the investor call, management broke the outlook down by customer type:
- Memory: Supply shortages have pushed up prices for DDR and HBM memory, prompting major factory expansions, including several planned megafabs that will come online in phases. ASML expects memory-related net system sales to grow more than 75% in 2026.
- EUV: The company expects to ship about 65 low-NA EUV systems this year, with EUV system sales up more than 45% from 2025.
- Advanced logic: Foundry customers are expanding 3-nanometer capacity for AI accelerators and investing at 5nm and 4nm for other AI chips, while 2nm ramps and 1.4nm planning begins. ASML expects advanced logic foundry system sales to grow more than 25%.
Management also said visibility is "now extending several years into the future," with some customers signing long-term agreements with their own customers. Low-NA EUV output for 2027 is close to fully booked, and ASML plans to raise both low-NA EUV and immersion DUV capacity by about 30% next year. China is expected to stay at roughly 20% of total sales in 2026, driven mainly by mainstream logic.
Why should enterprise AI buyers care about lithography orders?
ASML's numbers describe the supply side of the market that enterprises buy from. Three implications stand out.
Memory is the near-term squeeze. The call confirmed that DRAM and HBM shortages have already raised prices. AI servers use large amounts of both, and so do the conventional servers and laptops in enterprise refresh plans. New megafabs come online in phases, so relief will take time. Teams budgeting for on-premises AI hardware or private cloud expansion in the next year should expect memory to remain a cost and lead-time risk.
Capacity is being locked up by long contracts. When chipmakers sign multi-year deals with their customers, the largest buyers, mainly hyperscalers and AI labs, get first claim on output. Most enterprises access AI compute through those same cloud providers, so cloud reservations and committed-use agreements become a way to secure capacity, not only a discount.
The constraint is moving, not disappearing. ASML is adding about 30% capacity for 2027, and customers are already planning 1.4nm. Supply will grow, but demand is growing with it. That argues for treating compute efficiency as a lasting discipline rather than a temporary fix.
AI Connect event speakers have made the cost point bluntly. At COLLIDE 2024, Varun Tottempudi, head of data and platforms engineering for global analytics at Lockton, warned that without monitoring and alerts, "in six months you might see a bill" as large as the past five years' spending, as covered in our report on AI ROI across the project life cycle. Panelists in a AI Connect webinar on AI infrastructure at scale described practical levers, such as running preprocessing on CPUs and reserving GPUs for inference.
What should leaders watch next?
ASML's results came a day before TSMC reported its own second quarter, and together they show suppliers at both ends of the chip chain planning for sustained AI demand. Our analysis of TSMC's results looks at what that means for enterprise compute.
The next signals to watch are memory pricing in server quotes, cloud providers' capital spending plans in their upcoming earnings reports, and whether ASML's third-quarter sales land in its guided range. A quarter that hits the top end would suggest customers are pulling expansion forward again. For enterprise planners, the practical takeaway is simple: the AI hardware market is still supply-constrained, and the companies that measure and control their compute use will have more room to grow.
Frequently asked questions
What did ASML report for Q2 2026?
Total net sales of €9.3 billion, net income of €2.9 billion and a 54.0% gross margin, with Q3 guidance of €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion.
Why does ASML matter for enterprise AI?
Its lithography machines are needed for every leading-edge chip, so its orders signal how much AI computing and memory capacity will exist in coming years.
Are memory prices rising because of AI?
ASML management said supply shortages have pushed up DDR and HBM prices, prompting major memory factory expansions that will come online in phases.
Sources
Filed under: Data & AI Infrastructure, AI Strategy & ROI
